Five years ago, it’d be a no brainer.
The unbeaten version of Anthony Joshua was coming off KOs of Wladimir Klitschko and Alexander Povetkin, among others. He was big and strong and aggressive and confident and appeared to be the British export who’d dominate the heavyweight division into the 2020s.
If that guy still existed, he’d be favored to blow Francis Ngannou away.
But he doesn’t.
The scars from a loss to Andy Ruiz haven’t healed and the AJ who survives fights rather than seizing them these days isn’t nearly the menace he’d been.
That doesn’t mean he can’t jab and grab his way to a sleepy win in the desert when they meet in early March, but the perception of fragility makes it seem feasible that Ngannou can get to him.
That’s what Eddie Hearn and his Saudi pals in Riyadh are counting on anyway.
Joshua’s apparent vulnerability and the ex-UFC champ’s physical menace will be melded into a tantalizing sales hook for an encore to Ngannou’s surprisingly competitive showing against reigning WBC champ Tyson Fury last fall.
Ngannou is still a predator. He’s still dangerous to the point where a glancing blow can send a man like Fury to the floor. And he’s still capable of far worse if he lands a solid punch.
Can it happen, though?
Was the split decision as much on Ngannou’s merit as Fury’s malaise?
Maybe.
Joshua has been back and forth to the drawing board several times since his spectacular flameout of a U.S. debut in 2019, working with the likes of Rob McCracken, Robert Garcia, Derrick James, and Ben Davison while going 5-2 in seven up-and-down post-Madison Square Garden performances.
Davison was the man in the corner for last month’s wipeout of Otto Wallin – an ex-sparring partner against whom Joshua was aggressive, busy, and unconcerned about return fire.
He was more violent than in any fight since a cautious (and duller than dirt) rematch against Ruiz six months after his toppling. Since, he’d been bamboozled in two fights by a far smaller but certainly more skilled Oleksandr Usyk, and he hadn’t looked so wholly confident in a ring since thrashing Povetkin.
The greatest reveal on March 9 will be which version of Joshua shows up.
The front-foot aggressor version will be more likely to encounter return fire from Ngannou, who stopped 10 UFC opponents with his fists and provided Fury several uncomfortable moments.
Meanwhile, the hunt-and-peck version, though competing in a manner that’s logically less prone to prolonged exchanges, will need to channel his energies toward spatial awareness while fending off an opponent whose bent is far more ferocious than finesse.
It’s safer in theory.
But maybe not really, says Jim Lampley.
“Agree,” the former HBO mic man told BoxingScene, replying to a suggestion that an aggressive Joshua would have an easier time with Ngannou regardless of the danger he’d invite.
“AJ is vulnerable and Ngannou is dangerous. Logic still favors the career boxer.”
A loss to a two-fight foe reeks of a career-killer for an already thrice-beaten Joshua, though it’s conceivable Hearn could still rake in a million or two on the battered husk of his man’s former promise.
A convincing victory, though, puts him at an enviable fork in the promotional road where he could either snatch a title rendered vacant by sanctioning body criminality or loudly bang a drum toward whomever is left standing following February’s opener between Fury and Usyk, particularly if it’s Fury.
Include Randy Gordon among the believers.
“I think the AJ we will see against Ngannou will be one of the best versions of AJ we have seen in many years,” the former Ring editor and current SiriusXM host told BoxingScene. “I don’t think he’s shot. I think he had a loss of confidence.”
As for Ngannou, he’d warrant the same options as Joshua if he were to pull off the upset, while another competitive defeat would leave meat on the bone for a slugger summit with Deontay Wilder.
“Wilder-Ngannou would surely be what I call a slobber knocker,” Gordon said. “Two free-swinging punchers. George Foreman vs. Ron Lyle was a slobber knocker.”
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This week’s title-fight schedule:
SATURDAY
IBF/WBC/WBO light heavyweight titles – Quebec City, Quebec
Artur Beterbiev (champion/No. 2 Ring) vs. Callum Smith (No. 1 WBC/No. 3 Ring)
Beterbiev (19-0, 19 KO): Eighth WBC title defense; Sixty rounds in eight title fights (7.5 average)
Smith (29-1, 21 KO): Fifth title fight (3-1); Held WBA title at 168 pounds (2018-20, two defenses)
Fitzbitz says: Beterbiev is one of a few active fighters with a perfect KO rate, but he’s not always looked infallible. Smith is a tall, long, and skilled fighter with a real upset chance. Smith by decision (55/45)
WBO bantamweight title – Quebec City, Quebec
Jason Moloney (champion/No. 1 Ring) vs. Saul Sanchez (No. 7 WBO/Unranked Ring)
Moloney (26-2, 19 KO): First title defense; Lost title fights in 2018 and 2020) before win in 2023
Sanchez (20-2, 12 KO): First title fight; First fight scheduled for 12 rounds
Fitzbitz says: Moloney became a champ in his third opportunity and won’t remind anyone of the 118-pound elites but he’s still a tough fighter who ought to handle this foe. Moloney by decision (90/10)
Last week’s picks: None
2023 picks record: 46-17 (73 percent)
Overall picks record: 1,297-425 (75.3 percent)
NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body’s full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA “world championships” are only included if no “super champion” exists in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.