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At this point, oddsmakers seem to find it easier to predict whom will prevail in a third fight between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder than where in the world such a fight will take place.
The latest unfounded rumors have the heavyweight championship clash heading to Australia on Christmas Day. As improbable it seems, there are already odds on such a scenario playing out—and with Fury’s chances of winning having increased since lines were first established more than three months ago.
The best available action on Fury (30-0-1, 21KOs) has the 31-year old from Manchester, England at a healthy -266 (bet $266 to win back another $100) according to Oddschecker.com. The low-end odds—with some books already placing him as a high as -420—are up from the opening line when Fury came out as a -200 favorite in early March, one week after scoring a 7th round stoppage win over Wilder to begin his second tour as lineal heavyweight champion.
At -266, Fury is being given a 72.67% chance of winning a third fight.
“It is no surprise to see Fury elevated to favorite given the career-defining performance in their last fight,” notes Pete Watt, spokesmen for gambling aggregate website Oddschecker.com. “But the extent to which he is fancied by oddsmakers’ and bettors alike may raise some eyebrows.”
Conversely, Wilder (42-1-1, 41KOs) is forced to play the underdog role for the first time in his storied career, with some books establishing him as high as +275 (bet $100 to win back another $275), with just a 27.33% chance of regaining his title. Those odds have remained steady since March, even with the majority of the early action being placed on the 34-year old former heavyweight titlist from Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
For now, it appears that the payout is enticing enough to gamble on the American heavyweight, while some skeptics question if he’s already enjoyed his best days under the bright lights.
“Wilder was a shadow of the destroyer that we’ve seen come before and plenty of excuses were given,” notes Watt. “But the fact that the current odds – which would allow bettors to more than double their money – have attracted a minority of wagers is a testament to the fighting skills of Fury – and perhaps a lack of faith in the recovery skills of Wilder.”
Wilder was the pre-fight betting favorite for their first fight, with the pair of behemoths fighting to a disputed 12-round draw in their December 2018 title fight in Los Angeles. More was made of the final decision than should have been the case, although it helped establish early odds for their rematch this past February. Fury opened as a -130 favorite (bet $130 to win back another $100) and Wilder at +110 (bet $100 to win back another $110).
By fight night, Wilder was bet up to a -140 favorite according to Vegas sportsbooks. A reported 80% of the action was on Wilder to make the 11th successful defense of his World Boxing Council (WBC) title. It never came close to happening, as the American heavyweight was dropped twice and had only won a single round on one card at the time the fight was halted in the 7th round.
Their third fight was due to return to Las Vegas on July 18, only to be postponed due to the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. A tentatively rescheduled date of October 3 was offered, although that remains in doubt due to social distancing measures which disallow mass gatherings from taking place. In the event such events are not cleared to occur in the United States, there remains the possibility—at least according to Bob Arum, Fury’s Hall of Fame co-promoter—of the bout taking place overseas.
Wherever it lands, it must take place by December 31, 2020 in order for any action on current odds to be honored.
Jake Donovan is a senior writer for BoxingScene.com. Twitter: @JakeNDaBox