Maybe former WBA super middleweight titlist Callum Smith (29-1, 21 KO) has a big upset in him. The 33-year old has looked sharper and quicker than he did in gaining a controversial decision against John Ryder and being blown out over twelve rounds versus Saul Alvarez at 168 pounds. Standing 6’3, the extra eight pounds at light heavyweight appears a better home for him.
Then again, Smith wasn’t fighting Ryder and Alvarez in two knockout victories since.
That helps.
Maybe reigning lineal and three-belt (IBF/WBC/WBO) unified champion Artur Beterbiev (19-0, 19 KO) will finally see a combination of age and inactivity catch up to him this Saturday (ESPN, 10 PM EST). For all his destructive power and deep amateur background, Beterbiev’s professional career has been a series of fits and starts. A professional since June 2013, Beterbiev hasn’t quite averaged two fights a year over the span of his time in the paid ranks.
Wins over former titlists Tavoris Cloud and Gabriel Campillo, still highly ranked contenders at the time, came within two years and eight fights of his debut. He didn’t waste a lot of time playing prospect and looked like a threat to anyone in the class that quickly.
Beterbiev was the sort of threat who doesn’t need time to be ready. He needs time for the public to get to know him to make it economically worth the pain he might inflict. Injuries over the years have also been a consistent hindrance. Beterbiev-Smith was supposed to happen a few months ago.
Instead, we get it now based on another Beterbiev injury delay.
It’s hard to ignore the lesson of 2023. Fighters coming off a year or more of inactivity in high profile fights had a rough year. Errol Spence, Stephen Fulton, Jermell Charlo, Deontay Wilder all lost lopsided affairs against relatively more active competitors. Will the lesson carry over to 2024 at the expense of Beterbiev?
It might be worth pondering if Smith wasn’t entering after an even longer inactive spell. Beterbiev last fought in January 2023. Smith hasn’t been in the ring since August 2022.
It’s a good fight between two fighters who haven’t seenrwally matters and the fight that really matters hasn’t changed in a long time.
Boxing fans have grown accustomed to ridiculously long waits for big fights like Mayweather-Pacquiao and Spence-Crawford. There has also never been a shortage of major fights that just never happen at all. The best that the only fight at light heavyweight that really matters can do is fall into the former category.
Smith can render it moot this weekend.
The fight that really matters is a showdown between Beterbiev and 33-year old WBA titlist Dmitry Bivol (22-0, 11 KO). They are clearly the two best light heavyweights in the world and have been for quite some time. While there have been some nonsense issues bandied about for their lack of fighting (the WBC saying they won’t sanction a fight featuring Bivol related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict despite both champs being Russian is ridiculous), the fight doesn’t need every belt to define its significance.
Bivol has made eleven defenses of the primary WBA belt since being elevated from the interim position following the retirement of Andre Ward in September 2017. The most significant of those defenses came in 2022 when he decisively outboxed Alvarez to hand the superstar his first loss since a defeat to Floyd Mayweather at junior middleweight nearly a decade prior.
Beterbiev won his first belt, the IBF, in November 2017. He’s defended that strap seven times while picking up two more along the way. His best win along the way was a knockout of WBC and lineal king Oleksandr Gvozdyk.
That’s over six years of co-reigning in the division without a fight. One could argue that one couldn’t be sure who the top two were before Beterbiev-Gvozdyk in October 2019. Fair enough. That’s still more than four years and counting.
If Beterbiev wins this weekend, there has been some reporting and speculation that we might finally see Beterbiev-Bivol in 2024, tied to the big money and cards emanating from Saudi Arabia. We’re not there yet and nothing is guaranteed.
We were just one fight away from Wilder-Anthony Joshua a month ago.
Light heavyweight has been plagued by big fights that didn’t happen in the last two decades. Roy Jones and Dariusz Michalczewski reigned at the same time for some five years in the late nineties and early 2000s and never faced off. Sergey Kovalev versus Adonis Stevenson was the obvious showdown for several years in the previous decade and never happened either.
Bivol-Beterbiev hasn’t happened for even longer than either of those. It’s the only thing that really matters at light heavyweight and has been for years. This weekend, we get the latest chapter of anything but the only thing.
If Beterbiev wins on Saturday, let’s hope the decks are finally cleared.
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com