I tell you every year… but if you’ve gotten to this point and aren’t happy, too bad.
You should have seen it coming.
In keeping with tradition in this space, we greet the New Year with a preview of stories other boxing scribes will be reacting to about 12 months from now.
Of course, if you recall last week’s piece, 2023 was a forecasting year to ghost… if not forget.
But hope springs eternal, so – in the recurring quest to match the glory of a spot-on pick of an unheralded Andre Ward as 2011’s fighter of the year – we’re giving it another go 13 years later.
Unlike football, baseball or their ilk, there are no master schedules from which to pluck events to predict. And even if I was prescient enough to know now which fights would be made between which guys, say, next October, there’s always a chance that three people sitting on the ring’s perimeter would pound my forecasting into dust with their definition of what constitutes a “boxing lesson.”
But those are excuses and gripes for another day.
Today is a day of forward thinking, and with that, here’s an advance peek at what everyone else will be looking back on while taking down the tree after Christmas 2024.
And hey, if even some of this stuff really does happen… it’ll be a good year for all of us.
UPSET OF THE YEAR: Callum Smith SD 12 Artur Beterbiev
It’s simple, Artur Beterbiev is a Russia-born/Canada-based menace.
He appeals to the shuddering violence-seeker in every boxing fan with a 100 percent KO rate and the fact that he often wears a scowl beneath his beard does nothing to kill the vibe.
He’s working his way toward a four-belt unification fight with fellow 175-pound title claimant Dmitry Bivol in one of 2024’s most anticipated matches, but it says here that it might not happen.
The 38-year-old has a January 13 date with former super middleweight titleholder Callum Smith in the meantime, and it’s lining up to be a career-definer in a disappointing way.
Smith is taller, longer, younger and has looked dangerous since jumping up from 168 pounds. And while Beterbiev is far better than anyone Smith has met in his new class he’s didn’t look quite so dominant in his most recent fight – an eighth-round finish of twice-beaten British contender Anthony Yarde.
If Yarde can push him, Smith will topple him.
Sorry Dmitry.
KNOCKOUT OF THE YEAR: Filip Hrgovic KO 3 Anthony Joshua
Speaking of guys with major-league menace, we present “El Animal.”
Thirty-one-year-old Croatian export Filip Hrgovic has KO’d 14 of 17 opponents and looked particularly dangerous in blowing out veteran trial horse Mark De Mori on the “Day of Reckoning” show’s undercard in Saudi Arabia.
That win presumably propelled him into what’ll probably wind up as a shot at a vacated IBF title because the organization is likely to strip the winner of the Tyson Fury-Oleksandr Usyk bout if the rivals follow through on what’s expected to be an immediate rematch.
Elsewhere on that card in Riyadh, Anthony Joshua staked his claim for a high-profile bout by blowing away Otto Wallin, and promoter Eddie Hearn suggested it’d be Joshua and Hrgovic who’d wind up meeting in what Eddie expected to be his man’s grab at a third title reign.
But it won’t happen.
Though he looked good enough in handling a passive Wallin, it won’t be nearly as easy against a bigger, stronger and angrier (than Wallin) foe, and it’s precisely the sort of aggression that’ll trigger whatever doubts remain for Joshua since his three losses in five fights stretch from 2019 to 2022.
Left, right, left … and we have ourselves a memorable KO (and a pretty good upset).
FIGHT OF THE YEAR: Canelo Alvarez KO 11 David Benavidez
Let’s be honest. I don’t even care if Alvarez wins or loses.
If this fight happens in 2024, we all win.
But when I think about it, I do see a year-defining classic.
Benavidez is a tall and powerful with a nonstop motor. Alvarez is a sublimely skilled operator who can beat an opponent with his boxing skills or bludgeon him with thudding body blows.
Add in some Mexican angst and you’ve got all the necessary ingredients.
Benavidez, fueled by the adrenaline of finally landing the big-fight fish, comes out fast. He wins the early rounds with superior activity and gives Canelo problems with his size and work rate. Ultimately, Alvarez weathers the storm and begins landing impactful blows and winning rounds,
It’s the stuff of Leonard-Hearns going down the stretch and Eddy Reynoso plays the role of Angelo Dundee, exhorting his man to a come-from-behind stoppage in the penultimate round.
FIGHTER OF THE YEAR: Tyson Fury
It’s never an easy pick. Incumbent champions defend and unify titles. Hyped prospects fulfill championship-level promise. And legit superstars keep their status atop the sport.
But when a guy begins a year in one place and finishes in another, particularly when it comes to all-time historical standing, he separates from the pack. Such will be the 2024 case for Fury.
The chatty Englishman is already among the most dominant big men in the sport’s history, and he’s been nearly unbeatable in his career’s second act, climbing off the deck to vanquish a trilogy rival in Deontay Wilder and beating a non-competitive drum on another in Derek Chisora.
A fight with Oleksandr Usyk provides an undisputed opportunity that Fury’s never had and the expectation here is that it’ll be a far more one-sided affair than many suggest, with the “Gypsy King” forcing himself on his smaller foe for about 10 rounds until there’s simply no reason to continue.
That alone would be worth at least middling FOTY consideration, but we’ll roll the dice here and suggest Fury puts a cap on his year with an even quicker finish in the rematch, or, if Joshua manages to keep himself relevant into the year’s second half, by beating his rival in an all-England showdown.
Much like Fury-Usyk, it’s a fight many want to see but one that provides only a fleeting chance at an upset. Joshua is a strong puncher but he’s not as powerful as Wilder and won’t have nearly enough stuff to keep a motivated champion from beating him into a pulp before 90,000 fans.
Two mega-events. Two dominant KOs. And Fury rides off into the WWE/UFC crossover sunset.
This week’s title-fight schedule:
No title fights scheduled
Last week’s picks: 1-0 (WIN: Inoue)
2023 picks record: 45-17 (72.5 percent)
Overall picks record: 1,296-425 (75.3 percent)
NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body’s full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA “world championships” are only included if no “super champion” exists in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.