The Mount Rushmore of upsets.
Regardless of your generation or sport of choice, the top candidates for chiseled-granite immortality can probably be plucked from a similar crop of wannabes.
The New York Jets in Super Bowl III.
North Carolina State in the NCAA Final Four.
The U.S. men’s hockey team in the 1980 Winter Olympics.
And Buster Douglas in Tokyo against Mike Tyson.
Their images – Joe Namath’s finger wag, Jim Valvano’s hug pursuit, Jim Craig’s flag-draped search for his father and “Iron Mike’s” loopy reach for his mouthpiece – have for good reason lingered for decades past their final buzzers and bells.
But they all might be pushed aside come late October.
Should Francis Ngannou transfer his irrefutable octagonal menace and land a knockout blow to the chin of unbeaten consensus heavyweight champ Tyson Fury, the next-day resonance from Saudi Arabia could reshape perceptions of upsets – not to mention boxing itself – for several years to come.
Forget the odds, which have been predictably prohibitive since the idea of the bout was floated, and just imagine the reaction you’d have if the self-proclaimed “Gypsy King” was laid out for a 10-count.
“Those guys literally have a 0.001 percent chance against a top guy,” former IBF middleweight title challenger Billy Lyell told Boxing Scene.
“The biggest reason is top-level boxers have sparred thousands upon thousands of rounds and are so relaxed with punches coming at them. They see things better and don’t get nearly as gassed. They also know how to roll with punches and use bigger gloves to protect themselves.”
Fury, for all his faults, is a two-time champion who’s held every significant heavyweight belt and beaten each of the 30 men he’s faced since turning pro as a precocious 20-year-old in 2008.
Not only has his run twice lifted him to preeminence in the sport’s signature weight class and yielded 24 KOs in 33 wins, but only one judge in his 10 distance fights (nine wins, one draw) has ever turned in a scorecard favoring his opponent.
That was Alejandro Rochin, whose dubious 115-111 lean toward Deontay Wilder in 2018 made that fight the only competitive blemish on Fury’s otherwise unchallenged resume.
Ngannou, meanwhile, has never boxed as a pro or amateur – and was steered toward the cage by a boxing gym operator who suggested the Cameroonian would not make a living in the ring – rendering the very idea he can compete with a functioning Fury, let alone actually beat him, almost comical.
“I was in Miami at a convention two years ago and was talking to Jorge Masivdal, a top UFC guy at the time,” Lyell said, “and he said ‘You boxers are crazy. The sparring is so much different than UFC. It’s always a war and a lot more head trauma. UFC has a lot more weapons – which means more things to practice, less time only doing hands.’”
If it happens, though, the laughter from the “boxing is dead” crowd will be deafening.
And the scars incurred by the “boxing is king” crowd might be permanent.
“Everybody is beatable,” Ngannou told BBC 5 Live Boxing. “I mean it’s not going to be easy. It’s boxing. It’s a new sport. And even if it’s MMA I never take any opponent easily, like, I put everything in the work and give everything in the octagon. And it’s gonna be the same thing this time.
“Basically, I know that this is a new area for me, it’s not my comfort zone, but trust me, I’m gonna give everything. Be ready and when I get there, I’m gonna put on a show. I’m gonna give everything in the ring. I think that I can take Tyson down.”
Though some would dismiss a contrary result as a fluke or try to rationalize it with claims that Fury didn’t take the challenge seriously, it’d be hard to come up with a substantive argument that’d override the casual fan’s image of the decade’s top heavyweight losing to a guy in his first fight.
To that end, too, no promotional hyperbole or manufactured menace would prevent UFC boss Dana White and Co. from claiming – with powerful evidence – that his exiled champ’s victory legitimizes the three-letter empire as the gold standard of combat sports, leaving boxing as little more than a less entertaining, four-sided diversion.
If Fury wins, Ngannou can go back to the cage and dare his conqueror to take a similar risk and step outside of his comfort zone. But if Ngannou wins, the debate is over before it begins, and it’d be a long time – and it’d take a truly generational talent – to get the playing field anywhere close to level again.
Not to worry says Jim Lampley, the ex-HBO blow-by-blow man who’ll return with on-site commentary and reports for PPV.com during the run-up to next month’s Canelo Alvarez/Jermell Charlo show.
“In theory, that is true,” he told Boxing Scene, referring to the fallout of an Ngannou win. “But I am inordinately confident that won’t happen to Tyson Fury. His baseline persona and skill is defense.”
Still, it’s a doomsday scenario for boxing lifer Randy Gordon, who’s built a decades-long career just outside the ropes as a writer, editor, athletic commission boss, and radio host.
“If Ngannou should do that, he’s the heavyweight champion,” Gordon told Boxing Scene.
“Judges or not. Sanctioned as a heavyweight title bout or not. I believe (it’d be a huge blow against boxing). That’s why I am so against it. Ngannou is truly a guy who has that puncher’s chance.
“It would make a mockery of the sport.”
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This week’s title-fight schedule:
No title fights scheduled.
Last week’s picks: 2-0 (WIN: Usyk, Collazo)
2023 picks record: 29-11 (72.5 percent)
Overall picks record: 1,279-419 (75.3 percent)
NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body’s full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA “world championships” are only included if no “super champion” exists in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. He is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.